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Marc
“CHINA!”
— President Donald J Trump, 45th President of the United States of America, Twitter May 29, 2020
The Second Cold War
Why is our country burning?
Everyone has a different opinion, each supported with evidence that has been cut perfectly for its mimetic spread in the new public square.
We all fall in line to absorb whatever new narrative confirms our pre-existing belief.
“It’s Antfia!”
“It’s the White Supremacists!”
“It’s Russia!”
We live in a time when the truth has all but evaporated – maybe the truth was an illusion all along.
Either way, sensemaking has become nearly impossible in the face of the real enemy to democracy: information warfare.
Information warfare has accelerated under the flawed economic incentives behind our extractive surveillance capitalism system.
How can our (or any) democracy survive information warfare that weaponizes our best intentions to coerce us into beliefs and actions that do not serve our personal or collective interests?
How can we survive the deterioration of trust emphasized by a recent PEW study that showed only 29% of Americans trust their neighbors.
These riots are about more than racism – they are about the deterioration of trust in our institutions and each other.
This deterioration has been accelerated by the emergent polarization of demographics into social media echo chambers.
We’ve lost trust, the antidote for fear, but we need it now more than ever.
Unfortunately, trust doesn’t sell. Fear and anger do. These emotions hack our attention, which is the oil in the economic machine that fuels fat profits for Google and Facebook.
When we watch George Floyd’s brutal 8-minute murder, the emotional override of our cognitive processes makes it impossible to do anything but rage against all police. Next thing we know, we’re hit with an ad for some fresh new riot gear, sponsored by Supreme. Then guided to another video that incites further hatred.
So emotional are we that many (even the brightest minds) have begun to condone violence and riots as the only way forward.
These riots help spread more fear. Amidst the chaos, new “evidence backed” disinformation drives us further apart. These riots only strengthen the momentum of repressive authoritarianism that is beginning to feel like the inevitable outcome of the current political & economic system in the US.
When we no longer know who to trust, an authority will inevitably step in to fill the void.
First, they’ll tell us who the enemy is, then they’ll make sure we know they are the only ones who can save us.
The Enemy Within
Although we have hundreds of thousands of COVID19-related deaths, nearly 2 million cases, and riots in the city streets, we have not yet reached peak fear.
There are already rumors of protest spilling into suburbs, and if I had to guess what will come next - it is exactly this.
Predominantly white, Liberal Boomers still feel safe in their homes. They are separated from the mostly minority ‘ghost workers’ of Instacart & Amazon Fresh by their garage, an N95 mask, and some Lysol spray.
How would these folks react if the Hamptons were burning? How would they react to the murder of an innocent, white family quarantining in their home?
Would they fall in line with Trump’s calls for the National Guard to step in and save their weak Liberal leaders?
If something like this were to happen, I think we would see authoritarian checkmate.
They would tell us the enemy within is the “liberal terrorist” lighting fires, looting, and creating anarchy across the country.
The Enemy Without
“China!”
But the strong man needs more than the enemy within to take control.
In the face of such chaos, he needs an outsider to blame too.
I expect more evidence will pile up against the Chinese Communist Party and their response to COVID-19. We will see more leaked reports that the CCP suppressed important information on the virus.
I also expect to see an increase in the number of articles that show China’s misbehavior, and China will continue to fan the flames of this war by asserting its power in the East.
Who knows, the CCP may believe this Cold War to be in its best interest. If it can position the US as the enemy without, it can justify further authoritarian control.
This brings me to another bold prediction:
I believe there is a small probability that the US presidential election is “postponed” in the name of national security. After all, Biden’s son has been financing the enemy, right?
Regardless, I don’t see how we could possibly have a fair election in five months.
The Second Cold War
We have officially entered the Second Cold War.
I believe this two front “war” will lead to unprecedented executive power and Neo-McCarthyism.
Given the current media environment, how difficult will it be to tie the enemy without to the enemy within? Once the connection is made, any political dissenter will be labeled a terrorist.
War on the Social Media Stage
I can’t imagine how the first Cold War might have ended if it played out on the social media stage.
If it were not enough that these tech giants were implicitly captured by political interests, it seems they are now ripe for explicit, hostile government takeover
Last week, President Trump took a step in that direction when he called for the revocation of Section 230 of the Communications and Decency Act, which claims that online platforms are not legally responsible for their users’ posts.
If you’ve been reading my posts, you know that I am an advocate for Big Tech policy changes, but I believe the best approach is to use existing antitrust laws to break up these behemoths. This is exactly why – by making them smaller and less powerful, we can limit the risk of government takeover for political purposes.
Increased competition could force the smaller companies to win with better privacy features and fewer data rights violations.
Trump (and other politicians) don’t care how much power these tech platforms wield; they only want to control that power for their own political gains.
Hence, bipartisan support to revoke 230. Republicans claim that these platforms are biased against free speech, and Democrats believe 230 caused the spread of misinformation by radicals and foreign governments.
Watch closely to see how the battle over social media policy plays out.
I Hope I’m Wrong
I know this paints a dark picture, probably because I’m spending too much time on social media.
I hope that I am wrong about all of this.
I hope that peaceful protests prevail and that some semblance of cordial dialogue returns to US politics.
I hope that black men and women no longer have to fear the institutions that allegedly built to protect us.
I hope we can create better social media policy and economic models to counteract information warfare.
I hope that some peaceful resolution is found to the escalating US-China conflict.
I hope that we learn to trust each other again.
For my part, I’ll continue to support peaceful protest, structural economic change, and offer my services to those in need.
This Week’s Podcast:
Heal, Play, & Serve with Tim Chang, Partner at Mayfield
In this episode, I felt like we shot into the stratosphere, discussing some really heady subjects like identity, the meaning of life, and whether or not we humans are alone.
We also dive into the current tech landscape and new products/services that might pull us out of the current extractive ad-based attention economy.
What I’m Reading
Political Economy:
Steve Bannon on Hong Kong, Covid-19, and the War with China Already Underway, The Wire
China and India Brawl at 14,000 Feet Along the Border, NY Times
Dusting off one of my old posts on rising tensions between US and China
Stakeholder Capitalism:
AirBnB CEO, Brian Chesky, Employee Letter, May 5, 2020
Facebook’s New Remote Salary Policy is “Barbaric”, Kristin Wilson
Gitlab’s Compensation Calculator
Technology:
As Trump Targets Twitter's Legal Shield, Experts Have A Warning, NPR
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