“A human mind is a wandering mind, and a wandering mind is an unhappy mind,”
— Killingsworth and Gilbert
If you’ll please indulge me for a moment and take a minute to assess your surroundings.
Where are you?
Who are you with?
What does the air feel like?
What does the room smell like?
What sounds are present?
I hope you enjoyed this exercise, because moments of presence like this one are rare.
According to a 2010 study by Harvard Psychologists Matthew Killingsworth and Daniel Gilbert, our minds wander on average 47% of the day (61% by other standards). While our minds wander to pleasant topics 43% of the time, these pleasant wanderings are not proven to increase our happiness. Unfortunately for us, the other type of mind wandering - to unhappy and even neutral topics – is proven to make us considerably less happy.
Often, our minds wander to look back at past moments in our lives.
Is there one particular decision you’ve made that you regularly relive in your mind? Do you ask yourself, “What if I had done this differently?” only to find yourself lost in some alternate reality?
I have a few moments like these, for example, when I was 23, I turned down an offer to work at one of the leading private equity funds in the world and decided to start my first company. I’ve returned to this moment many times in my mind, and asked: “What if I had accepted the offer?”
This of course is fantasy. It’s a reality that doesn’t exist and I have no doubt that the way I imagine it is likely rosier than how it would have really gone down.
This type of “What if…?” mind wandering is particularly harmful, because it wastes scarce mental energy creating timelines that do not and will not exist (At least in this dimension of the multiverse. Meanwhile, if you believe in the multiverse, you can rest easy knowing that the opposite of all of the infinite choices you’ve ever made will play out in some reality somewhere).
The mind is a tricky beast, and it will continue to wander to these moments in spite of our best efforts.
But good news: not all mind wandering is created equal!
When I reflect on the way that I reflect, I can change the method to one that ultimately yields better results.
For example, rather than asking “What if?” which leads to the creation of an imaginary timeline, I might modify the question to a statement that enhances my existing reality.
One simple trick I use is to turn a “What if?” question into an “if…then” statement.
In this way, “What if I had taken the job at Thoma Bravo?” becomes “If I were faced with a similar decision, then I would…”
Now my mind can assess the existing outcome of that past decision in order to build a stronger mental model for future, similar decisions.
Mind-wandering is an inevitable part of being human, and many of us will spend nearly half our lives in this mental state. But I believe we have the power to improve the way that our minds wander.
Like bumpers in bowling, new frameworks like “What if?” to “If…then” can help keep our wandering minds on track.
As Alan Watts pointed out, our past is as impacted by our present mindset as our present is impacted by our past decisions. So, looking at the way we look back, can help us create a happier past, present, and future.
What mental models / frameworks have helped you best evaluate past decisions?
This Week’s Podcast:
Alternate Reality Cinema with Michael Morgenstern, Founder, Director, Producer @ This is Definitely Real
“We’re asking people to take part in this mutual destruction of tribalism and then question why we’re doing it, and the mechanisms of why we start following people, treating them like gods, accepting what they say, and having ‘our side vs. their side’ without ever even knowing them.” - Michael Morgenstern
This is Definitley Real is getting ready to launch its first story in “alternate reality cinema” - intentionally blurring the lines between fact and fiction in a media environment in which truth-seeking and sensemaking is already a gargantuan task.
Their first project, coming in September, is a cinematic feature film released over two weeks alongside a real-world, live response (as if it’s really happening): reaction videos, improvised videos and text posts, data leaks, and news articles. In the months leading up to the film, Definitely Real will drop fans of the existing story into an ARG (alternate reality game) where they help prepare the main character for the video release.
Michael and I discuss this project, conspiracy theories, “reality,” and more in this episode.
If you’re building technology at the convergence of new media and augmented / virtual reality, reach out!
What I’m Reading
IDEAS
The Escalating War Between or Physical & Digital Realities, Sam Lessin
Thread on Online Education, David Perell
MARKETS
US Fed Signalling Coming Increase in Inflation Target
The Nature and Origin of Money, Carl Menger
Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Levels, Visual Capitalist
TECHNOLOGY
Tech and the New Normal, Benedict Evans
POLITICS
Here We Are & 5 Stories that Got us To Now, Collaborative Fund
CRYPTO
Massive Eth2 Economic Review, Tanner Hoban and Thomas Borgers
The New York Inclusive Value Ledger
The Rise of Stablecoins, Bitstamp & CoinMetrics
REGENERATIVE FUTURE
Cure Earth, Charles Eisenstein
Calculating the Value of Impact Investing, Harvard Business Review
COVID19
Not Just the Lungs: Covid-19 Attacks like No Other ‘Respiratory’ Virus, Stat News
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