COVID19, Uncertainty, Prescriptions, & Social Proof
Synthesizing my view on the ideas of Naval Ravikant, Kapil Gupta, & Team Robert Cialdini regarding COVID19
https://ecofriendlyart.wordpress.com/2011/11/24/speak-to-us-of-love-original-art-the-prophet/
“No man can reveal to you aught but that which already lies half-asleep in the dawning of your knowledge… For the vision of one man lends not its wings to another man”
— Khalil Gibran, The Prophet
We are living in extremely uncertain times.
In our physical reality, there is an invisible pathogen who while harmless and asymptomatic to most, is extremely lethal to many. Let your grandchild go back to school today and their hugs and kisses might deliver you to your death tomorrow.
In our “main street” reality, 30 million Americans are now unemployed and hundreds of thousands of businesses remain closed. Which of these jobs and which of these businesses will be gone forever?
In our monetary reality, the last few months have accelerated the greatest global experiment in history, quantitative easing, as the Federal Reserve has increased the US money supply by $6 Trillion. Will this stop deflation, lead to hyperinflation, or mark the end of USD hegemony?
In our fiscal reality, we have an unprecedented $3 trillion stimulus package passed by the House on Friday that includes another $1,200 check to many Americans. How will this Universal Basic Income experiment affect our collective understanding of value?
The answers to these questions are anyone’s guess and the disparity between the quantity of new information that we receive and our ability to make sense of it all continues to widen.
Where do we turn amidst such uncertainty when many of us have lost faith in our experts and institutions?
We turn to each other.
Social Proof
“Without question, when people are uncertain, they are more likely to use others’ actions to decide how they themselves should act.”
– Robert Cialdini, Influence
The idea behind social proof is simple — the more other people believe an idea to be correct, the more it will be correct. Evolutionarily, social proof has been an effective survival tool. This explains why it is so deeply ingrained in our psyche.
Imagine that you and your tribe are hunting in the jungle 4,000 years ago when out of nowhere a few of your friends panic and run screaming in fear. Your next best action is probably to run too. If you wait for evidence that a tiger is indeed chasing you, you’re likely to be his dinner.
So social proof can be a valuable way to speed up decisions and decrease our cognitive load.
However, it has many flaws.
When Social Proof Fails Us
The first is pluralistic ignorance — the more uncertain a situation, the more we seek out social proof, BUT everyone around us (who also lack the answers) is doing the same. Sound familiar?
Pluralistic ignorance helped psychologists explain the murder of a Queens woman in front of 38 witnesses. Because of social proof, not one of those 38 individuals took action to save her. The witnesses saw none of the others act, so believed the situation to be OK.
Look around you to see no one else wearing a mask, and you might start to believe that masks are ineffective.
The second snag of social proof is that we seek social proof from those who are similar to ourselves.
This powerful phenomenon explains why there is often an uptick in young people committing suicide in a region where the recent suicide of another young person has been highly publicized.
What makes this quirk of social proof so deleterious today is that in the age of social media there is an accelerant on the fire — algorithms designed to captivate our attention. These drive us further into online echo chambers where our beliefs and behaviors are validated by others just like us.
I’m sorry to say it, but the way we react to COVID19 is more likely related to the behavior of our peers than to our understanding of the facts.
This explains the rapid spread of conspiracy theories throughout predominantly liberal “spiritual communities.”
Even the most brilliant minds are not immune, which may explain why many in Silicon Valley, FinTwit, & Crypto Twitter have pivoted aggressively from “stomp the curve” to “let us out.”
By the way, I’ve made this same pivot, so I’m not saying it’s wrong, I’m just pointing out that while I would like to believe that new information and data has driven my change of heart, it’s more likely due to social evidence.
What About Prescriptions?
I find Kapil Gupta to be something of an enigma, so I am drawn to his ideas. I listen to every Kapil Gupta interview I can find. Check out my friend Stewart Alsop interview Kapil on his show Crazy Wisdom.
This week, Kapil released a new podcast with one of his most notable students, Naval Ravikant, in which they discuss the idea of prescriptions.
“Prescriptions are ‘how tos,’ they are hacks, or various ways to get somewhere.” — Kapil Gupta
Prescriptions, like social proof, are embedded deep in our psychology. From a young age, we are socially conditioned to listen to our parents, our teachers, and other experts who offer us advice on how to live.
Like social proof, prescriptions can be effective (ie: how to tie your shoes, how to write the alphabet, etc). And like social proof, prescriptions often fail us.
Kapil and Naval explain that when we enter the “realm of art,” including business and spiritual pursuits, prescriptions break down.
For me, the “realm of art” is equivalent to the “realm of the unknown” — the more uncertainty, the less effective prescriptions become.
In the face of uncertainty, when we seek prescriptions, just as when we seek social proof, we are effectively seeking to remove personal responsibility for our own behaviors and choices.
A Prescription for Dealing with Social Proof
At the end of his chapter on social proof, Cialdini advises the reader “how to” protect against social proof that can imperil our welfare.
First, seek to confirm the validity of the social proof offered. If you can see that it has been purposely falsified — push back against it. Of course, in a world of #Fakenews figuring out what’s true is a challenge in and of itself.
Second, in situations of mass uncertainty we need to check in with the objective facts, our prior experiences, and our own judgements.
We can ask, how much of our judgement is determined by a single-minded reliance on social evidence?
Are these “prescriptions” from Cialdini unsatisfying?
Yes, and likely because the prescription to fall back on your own judgement and experience is no prescription at all! And as Gupta points out, we’ve been programmed to seek out prescriptions.
Uncertainty and Responsibility
“Bombarded by all sides, immersed in confusion, no idea which way is up — by some messy confusion you find a way. This was not done with a “how” — it was done with a flail.” — Kapil Gupta
This is Gupta’s description of the “path to greatness,” but it could easily be a description of the current state of global affairs.
Where we come out on the other side is anyone’s guess.
Seek your answers in the behavior of your peers and you’ll be led astray; seek your answers in prescriptions and you’ll be led astray.
Ultimately, it is our individual responsibility to determine for ourselves how best to move forward.
Good luck
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